There’s speculation that Canada’s housing market is headed in a direction that will land us in a foul-up similar to much of Europe, with housing prices so out of reach that many people will never be able to afford a home unless they inherit one.

In a country like ours, recognized globally for its opportunities, this harsh forecast comes as a shock. But experts aren’t denying that it’s a possibility.

The housing supply crisis’ magnitude

“It’s a valid question,” says Kevin Hughes, deputy chief economist with the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). “Housing affordability and the housing crisis have been in the news for several years now.”

To get an idea of the magnitude of the housing supply crisis, CMHC recently updated its Supply Gaps Estimate report in hopes of determining how many housing units beyond current trends would need to be built between now and 2030 to restore affordability. The number CMHC came up with is 3.5 million.

“That’s a lot,” Hughes stresses. “I’m not saying it’s a realistic goal. But it’s what we’re looking at.”

It would in fact be an unprecedented boost in construction, which would come at what many consider an unacceptable societal cost, majorly stressing the system and creating countless spin-off issues around infrastructure, traffic and the environment.  “We can’t look at housing in isolation of these other factors,” Hughes asserts.   

What’s realistic?

Reading between the lines, such an extreme level of supply may very well not be achievable, despite ongoing government initiatives at all levels, including the recent federal budget, which lays out a plan to unlock 3.87 million new homes by 2031. 

According to the CMHC report, Ontario and British Columbia continue to be Canada’s least affordable housing markets, with the lion’s share of the housing supply gap. As financial pressure mounts for Canadian households in large centres battling high prices and insufficient supply, “more people get priced out and move elsewhere,” notes Hughes.

Increased population density is another path forward for cities in this situation, he explains. 

“There are roughly 4,000 people per square kilometre in Montreal, and Toronto is about the same. That can go up to 7,000 and above in some centres in Europe. The starkest comparison is Paris, where there are 20,000 people per square kilometre.”

Yowza. No wonder France is experiencing a major lack of housing supply.

Similar trends around the globe

In cities worldwide with similar issues around population and housing shortages, experts have observed that there tend to be:

• greater numbers of compact housing units being built,
• more focus on public transit over cars in the downtown core,
• increased cohabitation and communal living,
• more people commuting greater distances,
• a significant percentage of young people living at home who’d normally have moved out and
• mortgages being held for longer periods, even well past retirement.

All of these things are happening to some extent in Toronto, Vancouver and Canada’s other large, busy cities.

“We’re already seeing density increasing,” Hughes affirms.

Many possible future paths — including those like Europe’s

The True-North-strong-and-free is shifting to a new normal. Take the example of commuting. “Before, no one would travel an hour to get to work. Now no one gives it a second thought,” Hughes points out. “What people think of as ‘normal’ changes. When we think we’ve reached the limit, we realize we haven’t.” 

He continues: “The future in Canada will likely be a mixture. We’ll see more supply, more density and more people moving elsewhere. The variables aren’t mutually exclusive. It’s never all or nothing. It could go many ways with many variables. Nothing is inevitable and none of this will happen overnight. There are many possible paths.”

So yes, it seems that watching our housing market become more like Europe’s may be among these. 

“I’ve heard that,” confirms Valerie Dooley, a sales rep with Forest Hill Real Estate in Toronto who’s lived in Europe. “Multigenerational living is common in countries like Italy,“ she adds. “I think we’re starting to move more in the same direction.”

Another outlook

Despite perceptions to the contrary, Re/Max Canada president Christopher Alexander states that homeownership rates throughout much of Europe remain high, “upwards of 70 per cent in places like Malta, Estonia, Hungary and more.” (At the time of the last census in 2021, Canada’s homeownership rate sat slightly beneath that, at 66.5 per cent — a 20-year low.) 

Alexander insists that Canada still has a lot of affordable markets. “Many people tend to make affordability comparisons to our most expensive and sought-after cities when it’s not realistic for first-time homebuyers to expect to buy their dream homes at their first purchase,” he points out.

The best advice he can give homeowners, he says, is to get into the market within their means and start building equity. “That’s a surefire way to be able to eventually afford the home you want in the city you want.”

And in case of any lingering doubt, Alexander asserts that real estate in Canada continues to be a good investment.

“Canada is aggressively trying to build more homes and create greater affordability. I’m confident that homeownership will be in reach for most people for years to come.”