Last month’s Metro Vancouver home sales stayed below 10-year seasonal averages, according to the Greater Vancouver Realtors (GVR). The region’s residential sales totalled 1,904, marking a 17.1 per cent decline from the 2,296 sales the year before and 26 per cent less than the 10-year seasonal average (2,572).

“From a seasonal perspective, August is typically a slower month for sales than June or July. In this respect, this August has been no different,” Andrew Lis, GVR’s director of economics and data analytics explains. “With that said, sales remain in a holding pattern, trending roughly 20 per cent below their 10-year seasonal average, which suggests buyers are still feeling the pinch of higher borrowing costs, despite two recent quarter percentage point reductions to the policy rate this summer.” 

Buyers’ hesitancy + new listing activity result in accumulated inventory & balanced market conditions

4,109 new listings for detached, attached and apartment properties were on Metro Vancouver’s MLS in August, a 4.2 per cent increase from the 3,943 properties listed the year before. Despite the increase, the total was 1.7 per cent below the 10-year seasonal average (4,179).

The total number of properties listed for sale stands at 13,812, a 37 per cent rise from August 2023’s total of 10,082 and 20.8 per cent above the 10-year seasonal average of 11,432.

For all property types, the sales-to-active listings ratio in August was 14.3 per cent. By category, it was 9.6 per cent for detached homes, 18 per cent for attached homes and 17.2 per cent for apartments.

“Buyers’ hesitancy to enter the market, paired with new listing activity on the part of sellers that is in line with historical averages, has allowed inventory to accumulate for a number of months and has moved the market firmly into balanced conditions,” Lis notes.

He says that with the Bank of Canada reducing the policy rate this month by another quarter percentage point, and with September being a time that often sees more seasonal sales, the fall market should bring more buyers off the sidelines.

Where prices landed

The composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver currently sits at $1,195,900, 0.9 per cent less than August 2023 and 0.1 per cent less than July 2024.

By property type, detached home sales reached 509, a 13.9 per cent decline from 591 the year before. Apartment sales totalled 1,012 in August, 20.3 per cent less than the 1,270 sales in August 2023 and attached homes totalled 370 sales last month, 12.3 per cent less than the 422 sales of the prior year.

Review the full report here.

In July, Ottawa’s housing market saw a significant uptick in activity, with 1,241 homes sold through the MLS system, the Ottawa Real Estate Board (OREB) reports. This marks a 13.6 per cent increase from July 2023, signaling a strong month for sales.

However, despite this surge, home sales were still 7.1 per cent below the five-year average and 8.8 per cent below the 10-year average for the month of July. Year-to-date, total home sales reached 8,349 units in July, a 5.5 per cent increase compared to the same period in 2023.

Encouraging market activity but Ottawa needs supply-side action

“As the market pace typically slows in the summer, July’s activity is encouraging and could be a sign of more gains ahead,” says OREB president Curtis Fillier. “Buyer confidence is slowly but surely catching up while sellers continue to add a steady stream of new listings. Of course, the extent to which that translates into transactions depends on the type of properties and price points available in our communities as supply and affordability issues persist.”

“It’s too early to tell, but recent policy developments could be a boost,” says Fillier. “Two consecutive interest rate cuts by the Bank of Canada, coupled with the federal government’s introduction of 30-year amortization periods on mortgages for first-time homebuyers purchasing newly built homes, will help some buyers. However, these are demand policies, and Ottawa — as well as many cities across the country — needs action on the supply side.”

Housing supply growth challenges and OREB’s response

The Bank of Canada’s Monetary Policy Report highlighted ongoing challenges in housing supply growth, pointing to municipal zoning restrictions and high development fees as significant barriers. Recent Ontario government data underscores these challenges, showing that Ottawa has built 1,593 homes out of its 12,583 target for 2024.

In response, OREB and its member realtors continue to advocate for solutions to the housing crisis, including allowing four units per lot and reducing high development fees.

Source: OREB

July prices

The overall MLS Home Price Index (HPI) composite benchmark price was $648,900 in July, a slight increase of 0.1 per cent from July 2023.

The benchmark price for single-family homes was $734,700, down 0.1 per cent year-over-year. Townhouse/row units saw a 3.4 per cent increase, with a benchmark price of $506,100. The benchmark apartment price was $422,800, a 0.9 per cent decrease from the previous year.

The average price of homes sold in July 2024 was $679,610, down 2.1 per cent from July 2023. Year-to-date, the average price stood at $681,082, up 1.0 per cent from last year.

July inventory & new listings

July 2024 also saw a 17.1 per cent increase in new residential listings, with 2,231 new listings hitting the market. This figure was 6.3 per cent above the five-year average and 6.9 per cent above the 10-year average for the month of July.

Active residential listings reached 3,480 units by the end of July, marking a 37 per cent increase from the previous year. This inventory level was 50.6 per cent above the five-year average but 2.3 per cent below the 10-year average for July. The months of inventory rose to 2.8 months in July, up from 2.3 months during the same time in 2023.

Review the full report here.

Last month, 804 homes were sold in the Hamilton-Burlington area via MLS, the Cornerstone Association of Realtors (CAR) reports.

This contributed to a year-to-date decline of six per cent. Although year-to-date sales declined across the Hamilton-Burlington market area, July’s Niagara North levels were comparable to the same time last year. 

Third consecutive year of sales below long-term trends 

“This marks the third consecutive year that sales have remained below long-term trends. At the same time, we are experiencing a gain in new listings. While rates are slowly coming down, for some existing owners the prospect of higher renewal rates is enough to cause them to list their properties, driving up supply levels,” says Nicolas von Bredow, Cornerstone spokesperson for the Hamilton-Burlington market area.

New listings in July rose relative to sales, lowering the sales-to-new-listings ratio to 42 per cent. Inventory levels are similar to last month and higher than last year, while months-of-supply surpassed four months (which has not happened in July since 2010).

More supply brings more choice and lower prices

More supply offers buyers more choice and continues to place downward pressure on home prices, with the unadjusted benchmark price at $843,500, almost one per cent lower than in June and three per cent lower than in July 2023.

Although prices are below the 2022 peak, they’re still higher than pre-pandemic levels and year-to-date average benchmark prices are just slightly lower than last year.

Review the full report for more information, and see other CAR market stats here.

Canada’s housing market finds itself, as of June, poised for a comeback after a challenging year. The trigger? A strategic interest rate cut by the Bank of Canada, leading to a 3.7 per cent rise in national home sales compared to May. After months of declining activity, the market is showing signs of life, but the road ahead is filled with uncertainties and hardship for both industry professionals and buyers and sellers alike.

But will this interest rate cut be enough? Is it the start of a cutting cycle? Will it get worse before it gets better? We look into the story behind the numbers, examining how economic policy, consumer sentiment and regional differences are shaping the recovery of Canada’s real estate landscape.

Dialed back expectations around interest rate cuts — cuts that would draw in buyers

Since the last forecast in April, expectations surrounding interest rate cuts this year have been dialed back as the market has seen an influx of properties with many sellers listing their homes in the spring. However, buyer activity and consumer sentiment have remained low. 

It’s anticipated that gradually lowering interest rates will eventually draw buyers back into the market. Nonetheless, the sluggish spring market and increasing supply levels have led to a downward revision in sales and average home price projections.

26% more listings than last June but below historical average

In 2024, approximately 472,395 residential properties are expected to be sold, marking a 6.1 per cent increase from 2023, whereas the total average home price is projected to rise by 2.5 per cent to $694,393.

Looking ahead to 2025, home sales are forecasted to increase by 6.2 per cent to 501,902 units, supported by continued declines in interest rates and returning demand. The national average home price is anticipated to climb by 5 per cent to $729,319.

But what really happened is by the end of June, there were about 180,000 properties listed for sale, which is a 26 per cent improvement from the previous year but remains below the historical average of approximately 200,000 sales by this month.

Possible slowdown in inventory buildup, approaching balanced market conditions

The number of new listings increased modestly by 1.5 per cent month-over-month, while the MLS Home Price Index (HPI) edged up by 0.1 per cent from May 2024. Despite these slight gains, the HPI was down 3.4 per cent year-over-year, and the national average sale price decreased by 1.6 per cent compared to June 2023.

The end-of-June supply of properties was up by 26 per cent from the previous year but remained below the historical average, suggesting a possible slowdown in inventory buildup. The national sales-to-new listings ratio improved to 53.9 per cent in June from 52.8 per cent in May, approaching the long-term average of 55 per cent and indicative of balanced market conditions.

Housing prices fluctuating

Regionally, housing prices continue to fluctuate. Calgary, Edmonton, Saskatoon, Montreal and Quebec City’s prices have been on an upward trajectory since early last year, while Ontario and Nova Scotia have also seen recent price increases starting late last year.

However, the non-seasonally adjusted National Composite MLS HPI remains 3.4 per cent below June 2023 levels, reflecting the sharp price increases that occurred in the spring and early summer of 2023. The national average home price in June was $696,179, down 1.6 per cent from the same month the previous year.

Our takeaways: the story of Canada’s housing market in June 2024 is one of cautious optimism and evolving dynamics. The early signs of revival triggered by the Bank of Canada’s interest rate strategy have laid the groundwork for continued cuts and expected (hopeful) growth in the coming years.

With a projected 6.1 per cent increase in property sales this year and continued growth into 2025, there’s a sense of nervous anticipation as buyers’ and sellers’ expectations have more ground to cover. However, the story is far from over.

The market’s future depends on overcoming challenges like rebuilding buyer confidence and managing the complex relationship of supply and demand. Looking ahead, the ongoing story of Canada’s housing market promises a mix of resilience, adaptation and hopeful progression.

Ottawa saw 1,439 homes sold last month, which was 0.1 per cent more than the same time last year and 7.5 per cent below the five-year average for June, according to the Ottawa Real Estate Board (OREB).

Year-to-date, home sales totaled 7,109 units for the first half of the year — an increase of 4.2 per cent from the same period in 2023.

“Ottawa continues to see steady activity as we head into the summer market,” says OREB president, Curtis Fillier. “Unlike recent years, buyers have more room to wait, evaluate and be selective when searching for the right property at the right price, leading to a slight uptick in the days on market. Sellers are making moves as evidenced by the inventory and listings. After recovering from last year’s slowdown, Ottawa’s market performance is nearly back on par and continues to make gains.

It’s going to be an interesting summer and next half of the year. As confidence builds, there will be ample opportunities for both parties. Now is the time for sellers to ensure their property is at its best and priced appropriately to attract buyers who remain slightly reluctant. Buyers would do well to remember that inventory levels — and competition — can swing quickly in Ottawa’s tight market.”

Prices

The MLS Home Price Index (HPI) was $647,700 in June, a decrease of 0.5 per cent from June 2023.

Single-family homes averaged $734,300, down 0.2 per cent year-over-year in June, townhouse /row unit homes averaged $501,500, down 1.6 per cent from the year prior, and apartment homes averaged $420,800, 1.7 per cent less than a year ago.

Inventory & new listings

Ottawa had an increase of 4.7 per cent more new listings last month (2,469) compared to June 2023, which was 0.8 per cent below the five-year average.

There were 3,585 total active listings, up 45.5 per cent from the same period last year, which was 57.8 per cent more than the five-year average. Months of inventory stood at 2.5, up from 1.7 the year prior.

Metro Vancouver home sales in June stayed below average, at 2,418 (19.1 per cent less than a year prior and 23.6 per cent below the 10-year seasonal average), with inventory climbing to levels not seen since spring 2019, Greater Vancouver Realtors (GVR) reports.

“The June data continued a trend we’ve been watching where buyers appear hesitant to transact in volumes we consider typical for this time of year, while sellers remain keen to bring their properties to market,” Andrew Lis, GVR’s director of economics and data analytics notes. 

“This dynamic is bringing inventory levels up to a healthy range not seen since before the pandemic. This trend is providing buyers more selection to choose from and driving all market segments toward balanced conditions.”

Inventory accumulating with more stable prices, well-priced properties still selling quickly

Last month, the region saw 5,723 detached, attached and apartment properties newly listed for sale, a seven per cent increase compared to June 2023 and three per cent above the 10-year seasonal average.

Currently, there are 14,182 properties listed for sale on the MLS system in Metro Vancouver, 42 per cent more than the year prior and 20.3 per cent above the 10-year seasonal average. Across all property types, June’s sales-to-active listings ratio is 17.6 per cent. 

“With an interest rate announcement from the Bank of Canada in July, there is a possibility of another cut to the policy rate this summer. This is yet another factor tilting the market in favour of buyers, even if the boost to affordability is modest,” Lis says.

“But June’s lower-than-normal transaction volumes suggest many buyers remain hesitant, which has allowed inventory to accumulate and has kept a lid on upward price pressure across market segments. With that said, the transaction-level data do show that well-priced properties are still selling quickly, suggesting astute buyers are able to spot value and act when opportunities arise.”

Prices

The MLS Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver is $1,207,100, a 0.5 per cent increase from the year prior and a 0.4 per cent decrease from May 2024.

Currently, the benchmark price for a detached home is $2,061,000, an apartment home is $773,400 and a townhouse is $1,138,100.

Review the full report here.

Home sales in the GTA dropped in June compared to the same month last year. Despite the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cut at the beginning of June, many potential buyers remained hesitant to enter the market. This resulted in a high supply that created a slight dip in the average selling price compared to the prior year. 

Source: TRREB

Fewer sales from a year ago but with over 12% more new listings

There were 6,213 home sales in June 2024, representing a 16.4 per cent decrease from the 7,429 sales recorded in June 2023. However, new listings increased by 12.3 per cent year-over-year, reaching 17,964. 

Source: TRREB

The average selling price in June 2024 was $1,162,167, down 1.6 per cent from $1,181,002 in June 2023. The MLS Home Price Index Composite benchmark decreased by 4.6 per cent compared to the previous year.

First half of 2024 performed better than all of 2023

Annual sales were $1,126,279 last year. After six months into 2024, we’re currently at an average of $1,130,744 which is slightly better than all of 2023. Sales have been steadily increasing since their fall in December 2023 which helped us achieve a slightly higher sales average. The current 6,213 June sales compared to December 2023’s 3,420 demonstrates the changing economy.

Source: TRREB

While the recent rate cut provided some relief, most homebuyers are likely waiting for multiple rate reductions before re-entering the market. This proves that the current well-supplied market has given recent home buyers more choice and negotiating power on prices. As sales increase alongside lower borrowing costs, the elevated inventory levels will help prevent a rapid increase in selling prices. 

As the market adjusts to changing economic conditions, any first-time buyers and sellers in the GTA will be closely watching for further interest rate cuts and their impact on housing affordability and the ever-changing consumer market.

National home sales in Canada edged down 0.6 per cent month-over-month last month, with actual monthly activity coming in 5.9 per cent below May 2023 levels.

On the other hand, sales activity remained below the 10-year average, as the number of newly listed properties increased by 0.5 per cent month-over-month in May.

More homes for sale across Canada thanks to new listings and slow sales

More new listings amid slower sales have led to an increasing number of homes for sale across most Canadian markets. About 175,000 properties were listed for sale nationally at the end of May 2024, representing a 28.4 per cent increase from a year earlier, but remaining below historical averages. There were 4.4 months of inventory nationally, up from 4.2 months in April, the highest level for this measure since the fall of 2019.

The MLS Home Price Index dipped 0.2 per cent month-over-month in May. The non-seasonally adjusted national average sale price was down 4.0 per cent year-over-year at $699,117.

Largely flat prices with a few anomalies

Home prices are largely flat across most markets, except for steady increases in Calgary, Edmonton and Saskatoon.

The national sales-to-new listings ratio eased to 52.8 per cent, still within the 45-65 per cent range for balanced market conditions. The non-seasonally adjusted national average sale price was down 4.0 per cent year-over-year.

Lower interest rates & the psychological effect on homebuyers

The Bank of Canada’s recent 25 basis point rate cut is expected to have a significant psychological effect on potential homebuyers who have been sitting on the sidelines, bringing pent-up demand back into the market.

However, the pace and extent of further rate cuts will determine the impact on the housing market.

Canadian housing activity saw another quiet month in May, with sales edging slightly lower and new listings moving only a little higher. We’ll see what happens in the coming months, when the Bank of Canada’s rate cut is expected to create a revival.

Greater Vancouver Realtors (GVR) reports that residential sales in the region totalled 2,733 in May, a drop of nearly 20 per cent from the 3,411 sales of May last year. Last month’s sales were also down 19.6 per cent from May’s 10-year seasonal average. 

“The surprise in the May data is that sales have come in softer than what we’d typically expect to see at this point in the year, while the number of newly listed homes for sale is carrying some of the momentum seen in the April data,” Andrew Lis, GVR’s director of economics and data analytics says.

“It’s a natural inclination to chalk these trends up to one factor or another, but what we’re seeing is a culmination of factors influencing buyer and seller decisions in the market right now. It’s everything from higher borrowing costs to worries about the economy, to policy interventions imposed by various levels of government.” 

More inventory on offer

There were 6,374 detached, attached and apartment properties newly listed for sale on the MLS in Metro Vancouver last month, 12.6 per cent more than the 5,661 properties listed in May 2023 and seven per cent more than the 10-year seasonal average. 

In total, there are 13,600 properties currently listed for sale, 46.3 per cent more than May 2023 and 19.9 per cent above the 10-year seasonal average. The sales-to-active listings ratio for May is 20.8 per cent across all property types.

“With market trends now tilting back toward more balanced conditions, as the number of new listings outpaces the number of sales, we should expect to see slower price growth over the coming months,” Lis notes. “Up until recently, prices were climbing modestly across all market segments. But with rising inventory levels and softening demand, buyers who’ve been waiting for an opportunity might have more luck this summer, even if borrowing costs remain elevated.” 

Prices

The MLS Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver is $1,212,000, a 2.3 per cent increase over May 2023 and a 0.5 per cent increase from April 2024. 

Currently, the benchmark price of a detached home is $2,062,600, an apartment home is $776,200 and a townhouse is $1,145,600.

Review the full report here.

Last month, Calgary’s resale market continued on its path of resilience with 3,092 home sales, largely thanks to declines in lower-priced semi-detached and detached properties. Although this is almost one per cent below last year’s record high, it’s also 34 per cent higher than long-term trends, the Calgary Real Estate Board (CREB) reports.

“Although new listings have increased, much of this growth is in higher price ranges for each property type,” says Ann-Marie Lurie, chief economist at CREB.

“Our strong economic situation has supported sales growth in these higher price ranges. However, this month’s sales could not offset the declines in the lower price ranges due to a lack of supply choice.”

Seller’s market with low inventory continues

New listings in May reached 4,333 units, about 19 per cent higher than last year. Although the sales-to-new listings ratio dropped to 71 per cent, inventory stayed at nearly half of what’s typically seen in May and conditions continue to favour sellers.

Detached homes

Year-over-year sales of detached homes declined by seven per cent, and supply sat at just over one month. May’s unadjusted benchmark price reached $761,800, over one per cent higher than last month and 13 per cent higher than last year. 

Semi-detached homes

Detached home sales rose by almost 11 per cent year-to-date, and like other property types, one month of supply meant seller-favoured conditions. The benchmark price of semi-detached homes reached $678,000 in May, over one per cent higher than last month and 13 per cent higher than last May. 

Row homes

May had 540 sales of row homes and supply of under one month. The benchmark price of row homes reached $462,500, nearly two per cent higher than last month and over 19 per cent higher than last year.

Apartment condominium homes

Apartment condominium home sales continued to rise, reaching a year-to-date 19 per cent gain and just over one month’s supply. Prices continued to increase compared to last month’s and last year’s levels, exceeding 13 to 30 per cent across different districts.

Review Calgary’s city and regional May updates, including area summaries.